Between Quinnipiac's Iran deal survey and the new NBC/WSJ poll, the week is not off to an auspicious start for national Democrats. Hillary Clinton's ratings have been on the wane for weeks, and now she's scraped a new low on personal favorability. You'd better believe Team Biden is paying attention to these numbers:
Headline from our new NBC/WSJ poll: Hillary’s overall popularity drops sharply -- from 44%-40% (+4) in June to 37%-48% (-11) now— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) August 3, 2015
NBC's write-up notes that Hillary's favorability is now worse than President Obama's has ever been. As I noted on Twitter as the data was released, Hillary's campaign must be worried not only about the direction of her trajectory, but also about the timing of this slide:
Hillary re-launched her campaign in June. Since then, her favorability has fallen by 15 net points: https://t.co/6PBeFBQQrv— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) August 3, 2015
After her post-announcement "listening tour" failed to accomplish much, Hillary re-introduced her candidacy in a splashy New York City speech. Aides told reporters that she'd be much more aggressive and focused as a campaigner -- the time had come to really kick things into the next gear. Since that reboot, her favorables have tanked by double digits. And as we saw in a recent swing state poll, her honesty ratings are in terrible shape (for good reason), as are her empathy/caring marks (also understandable). This swirl of negativity apparently prompted her campaign to roll out a $2 million ad campaign that they'd originally intended to introduce months from now. Facing a polling emergency, they broke the glass and rushed gauzy bio spots to air, once again introducing this household name to the American people. Other nuggets from the NBC/WSJ poll:
GOP holds slight advantage in presidential generic ballot, per NBC/WSJ poll pic.twitter.com/gw6ELsobkU— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) August 3, 2015
Change election. Gee, who's a figure from the past with tons of establishment & ethical baggage? https://t.co/vp01CypWNU— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) August 3, 2015
Telemundo/NBC/WSJ poll: Trump among Hispanics: 13% positive/75% neg Clinton: 57/28 Obama: 59/25 Rubio (+7) Jeb (+1) only Rs w/positive #s— Mike Memoli (@mikememoli) August 3, 2015
Yikes: More of all women respondents "view Clinton negatively than positively, by 45% to 41%" in new NBC/WSJ poll. http://t.co/UsDvHTQGg6— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) August 4, 2015
That last data point must be uniquely alarming to a campaign counting on the First! Woman! President! narrative to sweep their gal to victory. It may well be an outlier, and there's a very long way to go -- but if Hillary's numbers among women aren't much, much stronger next November, she's doomed. The latest Fox News poll also contains unsettling news for Mrs. Clinton, albeit less dramatic. Her dominant lead in the Democratic primary has slid to its lowest point yet:
Clinton is still the favorite among self-identified Democratic primary voters. She receives 51 percent while Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders comes in at 22 percent. Yet that is Clinton’s worst showing -- and Sanders’ best. Support for Clinton was 59 percent two weeks ago, 61 percent a month ago -- and has been as high as 63 percent in the months since Sanders entered the race. Vice President Joe Biden, who is said to be considering a run, sits at 13 percent support.
A twelve point erosion among her own party in recent months. She's still the Democrats' dominant frontrunner, but her arrow is pointed in the wrong direction.